|
The long awaited climate change conference (COP 21) in Paris will go ahead as planned in less than two weeks despite security concerns after the recent terrorist attacks in the French capital that killed 129 and injured 350 people.
Around 50,000 participants, including 127 heads of state such as US President Barack Obama, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin, are expected to travel to Paris for the COP 21, which some environmentalists view as the last chance to strike a global agreement on combating climate change.
Following the failure of the 2009 Copenhagen climate change conference (COP 15) to reach a deal to replace the Kyoto Protocol, all parties have been negotiating for a new and acceptable agreement by 2015, to be implemented in 2020. However, the shadow of the Paris attacks is likely to affect the negotiations both negatively and positively.
Impact of the terror attacks on climate talks
The main objective of the Paris climate talks is to achieve a legal and binding international agreement on climate and to maintain the global warming rate of less than two degrees Celsius. The meeting will also consider several other issues such as the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, funding for mitigation and adaptation, and technology transfer.
Following the recent terror attacks, however, many of the conference side events and festivities surrounding the conference will be cancelled. In addition, a mass demonstration planned to take place on the eve of the conference on the streets of Paris is most likely to be cancelled or at least scaled down amid security fears following the terror attacks.
On the positive side, going ahead with COP 21 as planned will send out an important message that terror attacks are not going to act as a deterrent.
In fact, the Paris talks can keep sustainable development on the right track and help realize Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) no. 7" take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts. The SDGs were recently adopted by all UN members to fight poverty, inequality, as well as spread peace and prosperity.
Climate change and terrorism are more closely interlinked than most would imagine. The problems caused by climate change are likely to have significant social effects such as mass migration and, as a result, unrest and conflicts. The Syrian conflict provides a clear example. Climate change was the initial trigger for the conflict as Syria witnessed the worst drought recorded in the period between 2006 and 2011 as a result of which the soil deteriorated and farmers were forced to abandon their farms and villages and move towards cities, creating political and economic pressures and social instability leading to the outbreak of the civil war.
Thus one can easily say that the impact caused by climate change contributed to the economic and social conditions in Syria, which allowed ISIS to grow. It provided the right environment for ISIS to expand enough to become a global threat.
GCC Countries and the CC COP 21 Talks
With regard to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), the region accounts for less than 2.4 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. However, global climate change will have a severe negative environmental impact on the region, which in turn will have implications for the economic and other development gains achieved by the region.
Rising sea levels on the Red Sea, the Arabian Gulf, and the Indian Ocean and the consequent risk of salinization of soil and coastal groundwater aquifers pose a growing threat; besides, countries like Bahrain and Qatar may lose a large part of their coastal area to the sea. At the same time, the region also faces a growing threat from ISIS with its extremist ideology. The GCC countries are, therefore, in a very difficult situation threatened as they are by the impact of both climate change and terrorism.
The Paris climate talks are of particular importance for the GCC countries because of the issue of fossil fuels, which form the backbone of the Gulf economies. The industrial, energy, and agricultural sectors globally depend almost entirely on fossil fuels and generate a large proportion of greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, any actions taken in this regard may affect the demand for fossil fuels, the main source of carbon dioxide emissions, especially in the countries that adopt laws and policies to reduce emissions due to the implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC). This, in turn, will eventually severely impact the economies of the oil-rich Gulf countries. The Convention on Climate Change is a major challenge for countries that rely on fossil fuels as a major source of revenue.
It is important that the Gulf countries work together with the global community at the Paris climate talks to reach a globally binding treaty that will help to combat not only climate change but, indirectly, terrorism as well. |
